How the numbers are made.

Where the entry price comes from. When a pick is published, Edge captures the market's live side-price server-side at that instant and freezes it. That frozen price — not the creator's stated entry zone — is what every return is measured against. The zone is creator guidance and is displayed as such; scoring against it would let a wide zone flatter a record.

How a pick resolves. Outcomes come from the underlying market's own published resolution. Neither Edge nor the creator can type one in. Each settlement writes a permanent, append-only record with a SHA-256 digest recomputable from the record alone, so a published result cannot be quietly revised later.

Return on one pick. With a frozen entry price e and a realized price r — 100% if the chosen side won, 0% if it lost, or the exit price if the creator exited early — the return is round((r − e) ÷ e), carried internally as integer basis points so no rounding drift accumulates.

Win rate. Wins divided by wins plus losses. That is the whole denominator: VOID and early-EXITED picks are excluded from it entirely. A voided market never produced a scoreable outcome, and an early exit was a judgement call rather than a call the market settled.

Average realized ROI. An equal-weight mean across wins, losses, and early exits — every pick counts once, regardless of its price. VOID picks are excluded because their return is defined as zero and averaging that in would drag the mean toward nothing for a reason unrelated to skill.

What the numbers are not. They are a record of settled picks, not a forecast, not a rate of return you would have achieved, and not adjusted for how much anyone actually staked. Edge sells research about prediction markets and does not take positions.

Creator earnings. Gross and recorded Edge fees come only from persisted fee-ledger rows, so demo unlocks are excluded by construction. Gross minus recorded fee is stated before refunds, disputes, and fee reversals — it is deliberately not labelled a payout balance, because payout state is not yet mirrored from the provider.